CCRC Marketing Reality Check-Up
Periodically, the source for a post on this site is the accumulation of thematically condensed questions that I receive regularly and with frequency; what I now call the “buzz”. While the “buzz” for me is fairly constant across the post-acute/seniors housing industry, the pitch does vary, sometimes daily but most often, weekly. I guess it just depends on what is trending and where people’s focus lands. If the buzz is steady enough and the sound-bites within the buzz repetitive, it spurs me to sit and write, perhaps defensively, to quiet the noise from Twitter and e-mails, and re-focus. This post is one of those defensive or perhaps, reactive posts.
Lately (last three to four weeks), I’ve been getting a steadily increasing series of questions regarding CCRC marketing, value (economic) propositions and to a lesser extent, repositioning. The sources of course anonymous, range from established communities to relatively new communities, seeking sales and occupancy improvements. In some form or fashion, I’ve likely addressed most of these issues in pieces via various posts and articles spanning the last two years but alas, I have been remiss in circling back with a condensed and consolidated version. Hopefully, this post will help.
Post recession and into a grinding period of almost unrecognizable economic improvement sprinkled with volatility, CCRCs need to come to grips with four key themes when it comes to marketing.
- Reality has shifted permanently for the industry. This is not necessarily bad but it does mean that every aspect of the sales and marketing cycle once engrained, understood, and successful in terms of selling units has changed. Consider the following;
- Within the last four years, most seniors saw their incomes via investment returns, social security, pensions, etc., flatten and/or trend down. Some saw immediate and permanent reductions (permanent for their remaining lifetime).
- While investment portfolios principally consisting of equity securities have rebounded, the recoupment of loss only occurred for those that remained fundamentally steadfast and did not turn what were ”unrealized” losses into realized losses via reactionary selling during the market fall-off and bottom.
- Depending on the individual market, real estate prices fell precipitously or at least modestly and the liquidity of the real estate via a thriving residential market stagnated and declined. Some markets have recovered elements of liquidity and re-sale value (price) but not to the levels prior to the downturn.
- Seniors housing demand has always been elastic but as a result of the three points preceding, it is even more elastic today. Why? Simply, economic fortunes of the consumer shifted downward and thus their real and perceived purchasing capability moved accordingly down while the prices for seniors housing remained stable to modestly higher. We’ve seen a similar effect in new construction vs. existing housing. New construction per square foot costs have stayed relatively flat or slightly higher over the period while existing construction on per square foot basis fell. When the correlation between the two is tighter or even inverted slightly, the demand shifts accordingly. For seniors housing, this added price elasticity, created by a wider gap between the declined consumer’s economic purchasing capability (again, real or perceived) and flat to slightly higher seniors housing prices, creates a different value proposition and purchasing dynamic. For most CCRCs and other seniors housing providers, the best strategy to combat some of this impact in the near term is to hold prices or drop prices; a scenario for many that may be difficult.
- The customer demography has shifted. While this shift has been subtly occurring over the past decade, the recession period sped the movement. Retirement is now more deferred and the economic need or desire to remain in the community for a longer period of time more developed. The customer today is de facto older and more driven by need, predominantly health related.
- In light of number 2 above, even with the constant growth of age bands suitable for seniors housing and CCRCs, a percentage of the market evaporated. This percentage is folk whose economic fortunes changed so profoundly negative or were marginally positive enough to afford a seniors housing product but now no longer so as a result of wealth loss. This segment or percentage was at the normative market age, economically qualified at the time, but four or so years later, outside the age and health profile and/or economically incapable of affording the product. The bad news is, the replacement numbers generated from a cohort behind them are insufficient to make-up for their loss. The market has marginally shrunk, although unit numbers have not and in some markets, have increased during this period.
- Given points 1-3 above, the sales cycle is now longer requiring new approaches, more touches, and revised pricing strategies and product features that realign the value proposition.
Circling back to where this post started, the compendium of current questions I am attempting to defer and answer lie in number 4 above. Specifically; “OK, I get 1-3 but how do I then develop the strategies, etc. dictated by this new sales cycle”. My summarized answer is below.
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First, redefine your customer. I like an analytics approach. Who are they? What do they need? What is their economic profile? What are they shopping for (and it’s not the real estate)? What is their background at all (or as many) levels that you can ascertain (education, occupation, interests, locations, current living arrangements, health profile)? The more you know, the better.
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What is your community’s economic value proposition? I’ve written on this before and it needs to be clear. Price it and benchmark it across the broadest market segments possible (compared to living in their current home, rental, condo, etc.). How does your product compare to competitors at all levels (features, services, care levels, etc.) on a price basis, quality basis, access basis, etc.? Again, the more detailed this information is, the better.
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Generating leads once the above is complete becomes easer. The strategies that work the poorest on a cost per lead basis are newspaper and print media advertising, other media advertising, facility generated brochures, billboards, and events. Events can be helpful in getting people into the community to remove a barrier but in and of themselves, they do very little to turn attendance into prospects without other steps taking place. Strategies and tactics that work best in terms of numbers and on a cost basis are referrals (current residents, families, community members, from other providers, etc.), e-mail contacts and direct mail, website and social media marketing, and co-branding with other organizations where your target market is plentiful and frequent. In this latter strategy, I recommend being present and visible via human presence as well as building joint lists and joint value-added connections (education, support, referral development, resource sharing, sponsorships, etc.). A word of caution here: Make absolutely certain that in co-branding and co-marketing strategies that the other organization is as credible and solid as your organization - the relationship must be value-added not value-dilutive.
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Incorporate new math into your thinking. The new math is all about how many touches and presentations are required to make a sale. For most CCRCs and market rate or above market rate projects, 20 or so touches to qualify and close a prospect is the new norm. In short, if you are working on a list of 100, expect five to ten sales (if the list is qualified) from that 100.
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Marketing needs to focus on building “volume” thus, methods and analytics need to be at the forefront of strategy. To keep costs manageable and to build fluidity, I recommend strategies that utilize in revolving fashion, the following four elements. First, e-mail blasts and e-mail news letters that go out to target segments on specific interest levels. Second, simple events that are educational, again focused on target market interests. Third, internet and social media campaigns. For internet, I like to make certain that the web pages are clean, focused and have ample opportunities for people to request more information. Fourth, direct mail campaigns.
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All campaigns and elements need to focus on a clear, direct distinction between your product and other options. In other words, the goal is to find as many ways as possible to reinforce what the value proposition is and how the same is directly correlated to the interests of your target markets. For CCRCs, the simplest concept is “continuum of care”. The vast majority of CCRC consumers are motivated by health and supportive care access.
The “new” CCRC marketing reality is all about analytics and alignment; narrowing the gap between what your customer wants and how your community is best suited to address the key issues. Touches have to go up to meet sales objectives and contacts need to be weeded through quickly. Building a qualified and fluid prospect list today is all about using multiple methods with fluidity. Finally, I can’t emphasize enough how critical and how granular the marketing analysis needs to be to push forward a successful strategy. Without a full analysis of market targets, customers, prices, product, etc., gaps remain that allow prospects to filter through, resulting in less than effective marketing activity.
CMS Reverses Course on Independent Consulting Pharmacists
In a move that most industry watchers including myself believed was unlikely to occur, CMS decided to reverse course on a proposal to require SNFs to have separate relationships for dispensing and consulting pharmacies/pharmacists. CMS publicized its decision yesterday.
About a month ago in a post I wrote regarding post-acute trends (http://wp.me/ptUlY-aO ), I indicated that my sources inside D.C. and CMS were all but certain that a final rule implementing the required separation as of January 2013 was forthcoming. In calls today, the prevailing news is that via the comment period and protracted industry pressure, CMS realized it needed to move away from this position. Perhaps more telling to “what” transpired is the directed two-tone sound flooding CMS. The first loud and repetitive sound drilled throughout CMS their inherently flawed and unsupported conclusion that the pharmacy relationships correlated directly to increases in antipsychotics and psychotropic drug regimes found in SNFs. As I mentioned in my earlier post, this conclusion was supported by no clinical or valid data. In short, from all clinical segments tied to the industry, CMS was bombarded with data refuting this assumption and demands to demonstrate this preposterous correlation. The second deafening sound regarded the financial implications for facilities, already stinging from significant Medicare cuts and insufficient Medicaid reimbursement. In my case, I provided directly, supporting financial and operating data for certain industry client groups illustrating the improbability of sourcing independent consultants, the costs that would be incurred to employ or engage an independent consultant, and the tangential costs the facility would bear in terms of software investment, time, and other resource utilization to implement “effectively” such a system.
The frank reality is that CMS wholly missed the mark initially. There is a clear shortage of pharmacists nationally and thus, a real acute shortage in certain regions and rural locations. There is a pronounced shortage of clinical expertise and geriatric pharmacologists, the back-bone of good consulting. Finally, only organizations sufficient in size and mass have made the necessary software and system investments to make consulting effective and efficient; most other organizations remaining lax in the tools necessary to undertake SNF clients on a consulting pharmacology engagement.
Finally a win for the an industry segment that has really taken hits from a regulatory and reimbursement prospective. SNFs needed this reprieve, if for no other reason than to continue to digest all of the other oft ill-conceived and illogical requirements already on their plates.
Post-Acute Issues Worth Watching
In my recent work and across recent discussions, phone conferences, etc., I’ve encountered a thematic trend; a circle of issues or as in reference to geese, perhaps a gaggle. Doing a bit of research and sifting through notes written over the past few weeks, here is what is trending.
Pharmacy: In October of last year, CMS issued a proposed rule with a provision inserted which, if published within a final rule, would prohibit consulting pharmacists in SNFs to be employed by or contracted with, the dispensing pharmacy. The theory is that when consultations are performed by pharmacists employed by or affiliated with, the dispensing pharmacy, there exists a greater potential for SNF residents to have as part of their medication regime, higher levels of anti-psychotic drugs, psychoactive drugs, and an increased level of unnecessary or unwarranted drugs. Of concern to most of us working in the post-acute/healthcare arena is that CMS can point to no specific data or research to support this theory, save a well-known fact (historically) that seniors in SNFs use far more anti-psychotic and psychoactive medications that seniors in non-instiutional settings. Drawing a bright-line conclusion that consulting pharmacists related to dispensing pharmacies are the cause is boneheaded to say the least.
Despite this flawed view on the part of CMS and the comments generated during the comment period, my sources inside the D.C. beltway are saying that CMS will publish a final rule soon including a provision requiring SNFs to use independent consultant pharmacists, effective January 1, 2013. Assuming this does occur as I am hearing, SNFs today should begin to work to develop a plan to source possible options ASAP. The inherent difficulty of course is;
- Insufficient supplies of pharmacists, particularly those that have current clinical consulting experience.
- In light of the point above, pharmacists with access to clinical consultation software applications.
- Knowledge - Geriatrics and chronic disease is a specialized field.
- Time and efficiency – getting to know the residents and their respective drug regimens will take a non-affiliated consultant longer.
- Cost – finding a source will not come cheap.
Some options do exist for SNFs in the right market areas. My best advice is to approach hospital systems, work with universities with pharmacy schools, band together with other SNFs, and start now to build a consultant’s package with your current consulting pharmacist, assuming he/she is working with your dispensing pharmacy. It is likely the dispensing pharmacy will work with its SNF clients to a great degree, trying as best possible not to lose the current dispensing business as a result of being a barrier in a transition period.
Hospice and Fraud: Most people who are close to the hospice industry either foresaw or should have seen, the current investigative and crack-down activity from OIG and CMS. The industry in terms of providers and benefit utilization, grew substantially over the past decade, despite overall health care utilization remaining on a relatively slow-growth to no-growth plane. For people like me who watch the industry closely, it was illogical to assume that a growth of terminally ill individuals suddenly sprouted and maintained the growth rate recently evident. The same logic concerns were expressed by Medpac and the OIG with the OIG specifically warning of forthcoming investigations where the bulk of a hospice’s patient encounters arose from nursing home contracts. Just last July, the HHS OIG indicated that it found that hundreds of hospice agencies relied on nursing homes for over two-thirds of their case load. Other reports from Medpac and the OIG found that literally half if not more of these proto-typical nursing home patients under the hospice benefit, did not meet one or more of the qualifying criteria for coverage/certification.
While the large agencies, predominantly investor-owned will be on the radar, even smaller and regional agencies are coming under scrutiny. CMS reports, and I have encountered this first-hand, that claim denials are up, particularly at re-cert periods. Diagnoses are being scrutinized carefully, with CMS looking at re-certs and probing for some evidence of deterioration or movement toward death. CMS knows that certain diagnoses and patient locations correlate to longer stays and as such, the audit focus is squarely on this relationship.
For hospices, the direction is clear – be wary and cautious of certain patient types and the “nursing home/assisted living” patient flow. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities are not necessarily gold-mines of potential referrals, In fact, the true number of organically terminal patients that would/will fit the hospice benefit criteria is not much greater from an overall ratio perspective, than the number found in the general population. While the business relationships between a hospice and a SNF or assisted living facility appear attractive, it is the attractiveness that also makes the same perilous today unless smartly coordinated and managed.
For the past couple of years or so, the hospice growth trend in terms of referrals has been slow to flat. Nothing regarding the recent fraud cases in the industry suggests this trend to arrest. If anything, I expect to see the trend marginally down for a period with the industry actually contracting in terms of the number of providers. Some will simply call it quits while others will sell or merge. Either way, expect fewer total providers and a stable to decreasing referral pattern shift.
Qui Tam, Me Too: The latest round of major fraud actions and False Claims Act identified violations arose out of Qui Tam actions or more commonly, Whistleblower actions. While the Federal government is clearly targeting certain post-acute segments (see OIG 2012 workplan), equally as profound an impact on the industry is the proliferation of former employees and/or contractors willing to disclose less than scrupulous provider behavior. While this element of the law always existed (enforcement and recovery via a private citizen for a portion of the recovery settlement), it has clearly grown to a new level in recent years. The reasons? First, down economies bring forth certain behaviors on the part of businesses pressured to generate earnings and revenue growth. If no organic growth exists within the business sector or market(s) a business occupies, it is incumbent upon the business to find new ways to mine potential market niches. This is very apparent within the hospice sector and in the Medicare component of the SNF industry. The pressure to build revenues in non-growth periods inherently leads to some corner-cutting or machinations that run afoul of the False Claims Act. Shrinking or saving to a profit while a short-run strategy, is nearly impossible to maintain over a longer term horizon without shedding fixed costs as well; very difficult.
The problem inherent with manipulation of Medicare coding, billing, referral requirements, etc., is that what seems good or plausible at a 20,000 foot level must also seem good and plausible at the ten foot level; a level where multiple people must buy-in to the same structural arguments, beliefs and incentives. As the folks existing at the ten foot level rarely see the same level of incentive nor have perhaps, the same level of “skin” in the game, any level of apprehension arising on their part or disgruntlement can be quickly structured into a Qui Tam action. Mix equal parts news coverage with employees disgruntled by certain practices with a growing element of the bar (lawyers) seeking Qui Tam actions with a government willing to pursue these actions and you have a fairly fertile tract of ground for more Qui Tam events.
The moral of this story is that organizations need to be very vigilant concerning their compliance activity, removing any incentives tied to new revenue growth without some counter-balance of audit and scrutiny. Too many times I have heard providers tout abnormally good results in segments or sectors that are flat to under-performing. This is a red flag simply from the standpoint of “why you and not everyone else” logic. If for example, an SNF has an inordinately strong, high paying rehab case-mix and therapy productivity, my counsel is always around “red flag”. Any facility’s profile should match close to the national case-mix distribution and when it doesn’t, either abnormally low or high, its time to delve deeper. The same is true with hospice growth, nursing home days, length of stay and percentage of continuous care designations. Remember the age-old economic axiom – “what gets rewarded or paid for, gets done”. Incentives perversely aligned within the boundaries of False Claims Act risk areas are ripe for peril and thus, someone within the organization or tangentially connected to this process, to cry foul with today, the expectation of a decent future pay-day.
Revenue and Earnings Cautions: In light of some of my comments regarding Qui Tam above, certain post-acute sectors are seeing revenue reductions and thus, earnings shortfalls resulting from Medicare payment reductions and fraud/probe activity. Hospice is a segment that I predict will continue to under-perform as growth is truly non-existent and where growth was attainable via SNF relationships, clearly constrained by federal oversight. Additionally, the SNF industry will suffer as well. Kindred’s recent earnings announcement showed this quite clearly. Medicare cuts impacting therapy RUGs primarily will impact SNF organizations that relied on “mining” certain RUG categories for revenue and margin. Without a more streamlined and balanced revenue model, the Medicare reduction comes faster than the trailing operational improvements possible via rebalancing the business enterprise. Kindred announced as much as it intends to shrink its facility holdings via non-lease renewals and concentrate on building a more efficient revenue/expense equation. Remember, fixed costs are the most difficult to shed and variable costs, tough to align in tight labor markets and markets where patient populations flux daily. In short, only so much can be gained via trimming variable expenses and typically, the amounts are less than adequate to offset revenue reductions and protect margin.
Quality or Quit: The final issue and one that has been lurking in the shadows and unfortunately, ignored by too many providers, is the issue building around “quality”. The frank reality is that from all my sources in Washington and around the various policy arenas is that quality is what matters. There is a prevailing and growing belief that payment must be tied to quality and that government must do everything within its power, regulatory and otherwise, to push providers to deliver better outcomes, more efficiently. This is the genesis of the ACO movement. I have heard directly from important policy and political figures, directed at provider organizations and industry segments, produce “Quality or Quit” the business. Providers have longed believed that quality was the furthest thing linked directly to payment, even though lip service was given to the subject. For post-acute providers and industry segments, the recent release of proposed outcome measures by the National Quality Forum (anyone wishing a copy, e-mail me and I will forward) is a good place to start grasping what is coming, and in a big hurry. Providers across the post-acute spectrum that are not presently, directly and seriously engaged in measuring key care outcomes, need to get up to speed quickly. Reimbursement will be tied to quality measures and more important, providers that are not jointly participating up-stream and down-stream in quality improvement across industry segments, will not see the level or quality of referrals necessary to stay in business.
Medicare SNF Rate Outlook
Literally fresh off of a significant rate adjustment/reduction in October (2011), Medpac (the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission) releases a recommendation for complete SNF payment overhaul. In their assessment of the SNF payment system under Medicare, Medpac concludes the following;
- Medicare payments to SNFs represent 23% of all revenues. Medicare (payer) as a share of SNF patient days averages 12%.
- Provider supply and occupancy rates remain essentially flat year-over-year (2009-2010).
- Quality as determined through survey and other indicators remains unchanged.
- Average Medicare margin is 18.5%. The average margin for for-profit SNFs is 20.7% and for non-profits, 9.5%.
The crux of the Medpac argument is that efficient providers have lower costs (about 10%) and higher quality as evidenced by higher rates of community discharges (38% higher) and lower rates of rehospitalizations (17% lower). Accordingly, Medpac believes that the current system, inclusive of recent adjustments to rates (October) is set to produce the same level of behavior and outcomes, plus account for a 14.6% average margin in 2012. The argument put forth by Medpac is that the Medicare SNF system must be re-based, principally due to the fact that margins have run consistently above 10% since 2000 and the correlation between margins and patient case-mix is non-existent. In summary, the Medpac recommendation, which will head to Congress in the upcoming months, is to revise the PPS system now and begin rebasing rates in 2014, in phases. In addition, Medpac is calling for a rehospitalization impact (negative) to rates for poor performing SNFs.
Ordinarily, Medpac recommendations such as this have more of a “frame the argument” impact than a real implementation objective. Congress has been reluctant to take steps this drastic to any Medicare provider group for fear of industry fall-out and political damage. Yet, as we have seen with the home health industry, greater movement is possible where rate cuts are concerned, particularly if the general tone is that the industry is too profitable and said profit is coming from gaming the system. Double digit margins seem to get even Congressional types’ attention.
Looking at the industry, how the rate reductions in 2011 transpired, the initial report/recommendations from Medpac, and the current public policy environment in Washington, my near term rate outlook for SNFs is as follows.
- All the evidence suggests PPS refinement is forthcoming. The system simply isn’t working adequately in terms of tying payment rates to care costs and rewarding quality. The “behavior” effect that CMS is looking for, namely a movement away from “rate ramping” focused on rehab case-mixes to rate equalization focused on a balanced book of Medicare patients (balanced case-mix) isn’t happening and apparently, isn’t properly incented in the current system.
- Rebasing isn’t far-fetched but it is aways off. CMS is prone to be exceptionally slow at devising payment systems and of course, equally inept at getting the infrastructure to work properly. If as I believe, the first step is PPS refinement, given the likely horizon of implementation, rebasing is farther away; certainly farther than 2014.
- There is no question that payments will become tied to certain quality indicators, especially rehospitalizations. This trend is foretold in the PPACA (Reform) and regardless of the law’s future (life or death or limbo), the payment tied to quality trend is here to stay.
- Politically, the will to champion what will be viewed as over-payments is far less than the will to find ways to rein in excess (or perceived excess). All this means, regardless of the upcoming political cycle and elections, is that lobbying for a system that continues to produce average margins north of 14% will fall on principally deaf ears on the Hill.
- Rates are trending down and I suspect another round of flat to modest decreases in rates forthcoming in October. The push will be system revision as opposed to just rate reductions, feeling that the best approach is to revamp the existing PPS and in so doing, create lower spending overall.
- Time tested arguments against cuts that won’t work or have run their course are as follows;
- Medicare margins are necessary to offset Medicaid losses. This one is good on its face but in reality, its tough to make the case for margins that have run in the 20% range and earnings that have been solid among the for-profit companies. The publicly traded guys need to show pain (in the form of earnings) before Congress will relent on the lack of merit for this argument (publicly traded SNFs tend to have higher MA census and higher Medicare census).
- Access will become an issue and facilities will close. Per Medpac and most industry observers, the supply today is adequate and slightly surplus so some continued shrinkage isn’t a big concern.
- Job losses will certainly occur. The latest cuts from October don’t support this argument by any magnitude. Additionally, the overall health care industry is growing so worker displacement isn’t really a grave concern – movement is easy between providers in most markets.
- Capital will be even more difficult to access with future negative rate outlooks. Again, this is a decent argument but in reality, capital access is provider specific and CMS and policy makers realize that well run, profitable providers will continue to have access to capital, even if the industry outlook is negative. A better argument is that negative industry outlooks make capital marginally more expensive and the number of outlets fewer. This is true only in the short-run however.
So in conclusion, here’s the take-away: Medicare rates are headed down in the near term and in the intermediate term. It is a virtual certainty that the present PPS system will be revised over the next three to five years. The future of the PPACA will impact this process as elements of reform shift the landscape for all providers. The debt discussions in Washington will have literally no direct impact on the future of Medicare SNF payments; the industry share of the overall spending pie is negligible enough to not be overly impacted by automatic cuts in federal spending. The future is one where providers must learn to balance their overall Medicare book/case-mix and focus on quality. Quality incentives/penalties are a certainty and there is no longer any room left to ignore outcomes such as discharges and rehospitalizations. Likewise, I believe bundled payments are forthcoming and the further development of ACOs will continue to shift SNFs to align their care and product/service offerings toward outcome oriented, bundled payments. Medicare as a payer source will remain profitable for many SNFs although not at the same margin levels seen over the past decade. Profitability ranges will trend into the high single digits or perhaps slightly more but only for providers with a well-balanced case-mix. As always however, the key to making money in this declining reimbursement environment stems from solid management, a well-balanced payer mix, and an operating infrastructure that is aligned with the incentives remaining in the industry.
Medicare Fraud and Why; Part II
Last week I published a post regarding Medicare fraud that is occurring in the post-acute industry. The post is available at http://wp.me/ptUlY-ak . At the end, I indicated that I would provide a follow-up post; a closer piece more succinct on why the fraud trend is heating up and what the drivers for this trend are. In short, while the two posts (this one and the one from last week) can stand-alone, readers with interest in this topic are advised to read both.
In the previous post, I indicated that Medicare in and of itself is an instigator of some of the recent fraud activity. The very nature of the program, how it pays, what it pays for and how its claim adjudication processes and benefit structures are configured establishes an environment that is a veritable Petri dish for providers looking to “game the system”. By design, Medicare itself is uniquely flawed as it creates an incentive environment for ramping-up procedures, utilization and acuity thus leaving wide interpretive room retrospectively about the necessity of the care provided to any one or any group of patients. Similarly, as the predominant payment methodology under Medicare is prospective, not based on a series of medical necessity tests, any third-party utilization review administered by qualified individuals will invariably find payments made for procedures, care, diagnostics, medications, et.al., that proved, knowing the final outcome of the care provided to a patient or group of patients, to be unnecessary or perhaps, greater in amount than what was truly required. The assessment tools and tools of predetermination of need or necessity that drive prospective payments under Medicare, while lengthy, bureaucratic and ill-defined, rely extensively on human judgement and input that is subjective in many regards. The playing field thus is truly wide-open and when combined with the implied incentive that more achieves higher payment, a clear or even abstract environment is present for fraud.
Behind the process of payment and the benefit administration elements of Medicare lies a whole series of laws and agency administrative codes that seek to define what is fraudulent behavior where Medicare is concerned. Truly, this body of work is the purview of lawyers. In my years of travel throughout the healthcare industry, rare do I encounter folks at the operations levels, administrative levels, clinical levels or financial levels of healthcare organizations that completely grasp the depth and nuances of these laws. In fact, because the topic and information is arcane and uniquely legal, I often encounter multiple consultants and even lawyers, that don’t understand it. Frankly, I have spent time with consultants from large, well established practices whose content knowledge in this subject area is poor to non-existent and thus, outright wrong.
Taking the foregoing and placing it into an evolving conclusion, the puzzle starts to become clearer as to why “fraud” is spreading as rapidly as it is. First, Medicare itself begets a certain level of activity that is specious. Second, the laws that define fraud are convoluted and constantly evolving. Third, the people at the organization level rarely understand the laws and to be honest, their jobs are not charged with “knowing” the depths of what Medicare and its associated agencies, consider as fraud. Finally, all too many third parties that organizations rely on routinely for expertise are no more versed in compliance and the fraud laws than the organizations themselves.
In its most simplified form (lawyers please hold the laughs as my role is to employ wherever possible the KISS principle), fraud under Medicare can be boiled down as follows.
- Anti-Kickback: Forbids any individual or organization that is involved in the provision of care reimbursed or covered under Medicare or Medicaid from receiving a financial incentive or inducement associated with a referral, the provision of service, utilization or marketing of a service. The Anti-Kickback provision has been broadly employed to cover contractors, lease arrangements, referral arrangements, purchasing arrangements, etc. A growing and today, somewhat common use of the Anti-Kickback laws are the relationships between SNFs and Hospices, vendor relationships with SNFs, pharmaceutical and equipment suppliers, provider organizations, and lease arrangements between Medicare providers. Most interesting to note is the after-practice or after-violation OIG activity where Anti-Kickback language arises following a Whistleblower action of some form. In short, I am seeing more activity here not as a de novo action started by CMS but following after, a Qui Tam suit. Because of the breadth of activity that falls under Anti-Kickback, it isn’t surprising that this area is the most misunderstood by providers. For example, I routinely see situations where SNFs enter into or seek, agreements with diagnostic providers (radiology, laboratory, etc.) for fee levels below Medicare fee-screens or allowable levels. Equally not surprising, I’ve watched this activity escalate concurrent with reimbursement cuts under Part A.
- False Claims Act: Defines as a violation, any activity where a person or organization, intentionally and/or knowingly, causes payment to be made or seeks to cause payment to me made under Medicare or Medicaid for care that is improperly provided, provided illegally, unneccessary, etc. Common applications or violations include upcoding, services not rendered, bundling or unbundling, services rendered illegally or unprofessional (not within a prescribed professional practice standard), phantom patients, kickbacks or inducements (see Anti-Kickback), and improper certifications or false certifications. In most recent periods, like application under Anti-Kickback laws, the False Claims Act violations of significant magnitude seem to arise from Qui Tam actions. Again, this areas of fraud is broadening rapidly as the methodology used by providers to create additional patient volume can and has run afoul of the False Claims Act (reference AseraCare’s most recent Qui Tam suit). This area is a literal mine field for many post-acute providers and rapidly becoming an extremely hot interest area within the Medicare Hospice arena and the SNF arena. What I see that is most disturbing for providers is their near complete failure to understand that a contract arrangement for services provided under Part A imputes False Claim Act liability to both parties. Case in point: SNFs and therapy contract agreements. Even though the therapy company may be completely at fault for upcoding therapy RUGs and thereby creating a scenario for violation under the False Claims Act, the SNF cannot escape the liability and culpability for the same violation under the Act as it is the Part A provider and the entity that generated the fraudulent claim to Medicare. I am seeing the same application of False Claim Act provisions in the relationships between SNFs and Hospices where both parties were overtly engaged in certifying a resident as terminal when no such terminal condition truly existed. In these situations, there is often dual application as the reimbursement crosses Medicare and Medicaid.
- Stark Laws (collective): Created and then adapted via a series of additional laws, Stark fundamentally covers physician self-referral for Medicare and Medicaid patients. At the core is a theme of separating physician interests where, given a physician’s ability to direct patient flow, ownership or financial benefit arising out of a referral is a prohibited activity. Stark governs ownership, investment and beneficial compensation arrangements between physicians and other Medicare and Medicaid providers. As is true with all Medicare/Medicaid fraud related laws, Stark is complicated. The law is loaded with nuances that arose across Stark’s three phases (Stark I, II and III) that cover an inordinately wide range of activities that are part and parcel to physician practices and their relationships under Medicare and Medicaid. Stark also has a series of “safe harbors”; practices that on their face may be violations but when conducted in certain ways and manners, the practice is not a violation. The establishment of these safe harbors principally arose to deal with issues where certain practices crossed between Stark and the Anti-Kickback laws. Examples of existing safe harbors are physician investments in joint-ventures in underserved areas, practitioner recruitment in underserved areas, physician investments in their own group practices (provided the practice group meets Stark definitions), and specialty referral relationships where the referral from a primary care physician to a specialist includes a fundamental understanding that the specialists will refer the patient back to the original primary care physician for continued care (money or other inducements cannot be a part of this referral process). Within the post-acute industry, the most common Stark violations I see are the relationships between contracted physicians serving as Medical Directors in Hospices, Home Health Agencies and Nursing Homes where the compensation relationships are not properly structured to avoid compensation ties to referrals or to avoid improper compensation limits (inducements) above and beyond market and Medicare norms.
A quick review of the above laws and their simplified descriptions suggests that conducting or continuing certain practices is a proverbial “dance with the devil”. The question posed thus, is why does fraud rise to the level that it does and seemingly, on a broad basis within organizations that have the resources to understand the laws and their implications? The answer is: Market and Economics. Consider the following;
- Literally today in the U.S., there are more providers and capacity than true organic demand, when demand is correlated to “paying demand”. Arguably, demand is probably sufficient enough to fill all capacity but when placed into the context of demand that pays in amounts equal or greater than the fixed and variable cost of providing the service, the “desired demand” is less than the current provider capacity. If one were to re-frame demand to include payment equal to or greater than the fixed and variable costs of service plus a margin, the remaining demand is shaved lower yet again. It is this level of demand that produces considerable competition among providers, often to levels where provider survival is at stake unless new sources of paying patients can be developed. When cases such as the recent Qui Tams involving Vitas and Asercare arise, one can quickly understand the inherent pressure within these organizations of developing new sources of patients, even if doing so runs afoul of Medicare anti-fraud laws. In essence, the risk of organizational failure, poor performance, reduction in corporate value, etc. is greater than the risk of being inviolate of one or Medicare anti-fraud laws. Taken marginally deeper, the truth is that there are simply not enough core (by definition under the Medicare hospice benefit) hospice patients at any one point in time, with adequate payment, to meet the overall capacity in the industry. The same holds true for home health and is becoming more apparent in the SNF sector.
- Market areas and their demographics and economic conditions change faster than healthcare providers can react and thus, what was at one point a good market may no longer be (one need only look at Michigan and in particular the Detroit area and corridor areas). Operationally, even for remote office agencies such as found in home health and hospice, healthcare service provision involves a certain level of fixed investment and for certain, infrastructure investment. Providers that have witnessed market fortunes change and thus, paying volumes shift, are stressed to replace dying or dwindling volumes with other volumes. All too often, I watch once unthought of marketing practices, taboo relationships, referral relationships, and specious coding practices develop almost in concert with market changes. The alternative? Shutter offices, lay-off people, write down investments or abandon buildings. For providers that have gone this route, the pain can be almost unbearable as trying to exit a now dead or severely decayed market is far from fluid; potential users or buyers of infrastructure don’t tend to relish the opportunity to enter a decaying or impaired environment.
- While in former periods of economic decline, healthcare remained mostly immune from too much spill-over impact, the latest decline and continued stagnation violated past experience. The reason is less one-side economically and more about a wider incorporation of elements that are causes and effects of the current economic circumstances. Simply stated: This current period of recession and stagnation contains more elements of public policy causes than market forces. This is particularly true for healthcare. Though past economic periods evidenced rise and fall, recovering for market purposes in almost predictable fashion post fall, such is not the current case, fundamentally due to the public policy issues that are dogging a normative recovery. What this recession showed clearer than any other is that our economy is structurally unsound and our core time-held ideologies regarding the role of entitlements in a first-world leading society awash in smoke and mirrors; promises that are unsustainable and moreover, fiscally impossible to fund. Thus, for providers, two forces are at work today (and for the immediate future) to constrain any real growth in payments and volume. First, without a more robust growth in employment (non-governmental) and overall economic activity, those without health insurance will remain greater in number than historic (a payer source reduction) and programs reliant on tax revenues for funding, facing mounting deficits (Medicaid and Medicare). In economic periods when unemployment remains high, pressure mounts on governments to take-on a greater responsibility of social welfare, during a period where revenues via taxation sources are declining or on-balance, stable but lower than normal levels. As the burden falls on entitlements, deficits increase to shift resources toward these programs. Different in this period is that the balance sheet room to simply create more “credit” or “dollars” ( deficits) to shift toward entitlements is functionally non-existent. The recipe today that on the economic front drives an element of fraudulent behavior is this. One part fewer paying patients as benefit levels for health coverage have evaporated or waned. Another part diminished resources from patients to pay for services, even where some level of benefit may still be intact. Two parts an outlook of Medicare cuts and reductions. One part current cuts to Medicaid payments, a program that already under-compensates providers for their costs of care. And finally, three parts Washington policy makers awash in dysfunction, lacking fiscal clarity at each turn and an inability to generate traction on any programmatic plans of common sense that would create some level of stability and reassurance (the three parts are the House, the Senate, and White House). To weather the malaise and compensate for what is and likely what will be, providers turn to paths creative. The paths I too often see are by destination, a road to fraud. Whether the activity is upcoding for patients that do not fit a higher level of reimbursement to engaging in contract negotiations at rates below Medicare allowable amounts to help offset reimbursement reductions, to billing at certain levels and providing care below the level billed to create a margin, each activity (and I could list many others) is at least in major part, a direct reflection on the current economy that is overlaid on healthcare.
Medicare, Fraud and Why: Perspectives on the Post-Acute Industry
What never ceases to amaze me is the amount of post-news discussion that occurs when certain issues rise to the front-page (or near the front page). Seemingly, industry side-liners awaken and look in disbelief that one major provider organization or another is again, embroiled in some OIG investigation, lawsuit or official inquiry concerning their Medicare billing and/or care provided to Medicare patients. The word “fraud” is tossed out quickly; the shock value of vulgarity at a cocktail party in polite company is expected. Statistics from qualified and unqualified sources burst forth claiming, some correct, that approximately 20 to 30% of care paid for by Medicare is inappropriate, unwarranted, unnecessary or down-right fraudulent. Truth be told, the unwarranted, inappropriate, and unnecessary talk is like Monday morning quarterbacking; an easy sport to engage in when all the facts are visible and the outcomes known. The real question that is rarely, if ever addressed, is “why” do these issues consistently arise and most often, among the same provider organizations.
The simplest answer as to “why” the issues of fraud and inappropriate care and billing arise (routinely) is Medicare itself. Any payment system that rewards via higher payment, greater or increasing levels of acuity and utilization is ripe for provider organizations to chase the greater reward, even if doing so stretches the limit on necessary or warranted care. Think pro sports. Higher dollars go to players that hit more home runs than singles or for average. In fact, less than a few years ago, the prize for the “long ball” was so good that players opted to cheat with chemistry as their true ability alone would not produce the highest return or largest pay days. In economic terms the old axiom of “what gets rewarded gets done” applies. Medicare has a long history of over-valuing certain types of patients, services, etc. while under-valuing others and thus, it is by its own rate and payment methodology, inducing a certain amount of “fraud”. When the rearview mirror test is applied or the hindsight test (that which is 20/20), its fairly easy to look at groupings of payments, diagnostic codes and outcomes and find structural flaws suggesting inappropriate or unnecessary care was provided. The remaining question then revolves around how to pre-examine each event or group of events to a level to assure that no inappropriate care or unnecessary care is rendered. Truth be told, I’m not sure that this question is completely solvable.
In some cases or circumstances notable of late, the word fraud is attached or overtly implied, to events that likely aren’t fraudulent; more indicative of gaming the system. For example, the Senate investigation of Amedysis, Gentiva, Almost Family, etc. was principally tied to an investigation completed by the Wall Street Journal involving therapy visits. At the core, the implication was that these companies “maxed” the number of visits to trigger the highest level of payment. Important to note is that the practice of “clustering” visits around the higher paying thresholds began when Congress created the higher paying threshold out of concern that “therapy” was being limited to home care patients. Of additional interest is the role MedPac played in this event, reporting average profit margins for these organizations approaching the upper teens to twenty percent range.
In the example above, the issue front and center is Medicare profit vs. appropriate level of profit (whatever level this is). With hindsight being 20/20, it is easy to see that perhaps, some therapy was over-provided or in some cases, some patients were selected intentionally because of their therapy or rehab potential. Did the agencies referenced intentionally seek to align their referral development practices and marketing approaches to attract certain patient types? Of course and doesn’t every business do the same? Personally, I have run organizations that did this and provided guidance to others on how to do this. The reality is that some patients are better paying than others and regardless of whether an organization is non-profit or for-profit, the goal of any business is to attract paying customers and preferably, the customers that pay the best. When the incentive is laid forth by Medicare that certain types of care and services come with higher rates of reimbursement, it is only logical that providers will seek to develop business models and systems that garner the highest rate of reimbursement. If unnecessary care was the sole issue of whether these agencies did wrong, I won’t attempt to defend them but alternatively offer the whole health care industry as an example of unnecessary care provided across the spectrum. By our nature and culture, we have come to believe that more is better. An analysis of “unnecessary” in any area from drugs to surgeries to diagnostic tests to hospital stays and physician visits, many of which are/were paid for by Medicare, would clearly show this to a be a systemic problem and as categorized by CMS/OIG and the Senate, fraud and violations of the FCA (False Claims Act).
There isn’t a segment of the post-acute industry that I follow that remains honestly non-participative with regard to Medicare billing impropriety. There also isn’t a segment that isn’t constantly lobbying Congress to continue to shovel more money into Medicare and generally, skewed toward certain categories, diagnoses or patient-types where allegations of fraud routinely arise. Recently, CMS announced a rebasing of RUGs rates for SNFs, primarily targeted at certain therapy categories. A huge cry of doom erupted from the industry and the industry tag alongs, principally therapy companies. I read for days, prognostications of SNF margins turning negative, stock prices falling, layoffs, etc. What was the real issue? Medicare is being used by the industry to routinely subsidize revenue shortfalls that occur via Medicaid. In reality, as Medicare is a bit payer in the SNF world (less than 20% of all days of care), the admission that Medicare is subsidizing other shortfalls is the same as stating that Medicare is overpaying SNFs. For CMS, the issue was about another “miss” in the ongoing game of trying to tie reimbursement to care needs to patient populations. The industry was, as has always been the case, one step ahead in moving its practices to where the money is. No different than the home health industry events, the SNF industry targeted certain types of patients and unquestionably, a portion of the therapy provided may fit the hind-sight definition of “unnecessary” either by level coded or visits actually provided. Stretching the diagnosis, seeking certain referrals, building relationships that are economically advantageous to various parties, etc., is as common in the SNF industry as it is in hospice, home health, and hospitals.
The latest hospice industry news event concerning Vitas and inappropriate referrals of non-terminal patients is indicative of a twist on an old theme, nothing more. While this instance is truly creative by definition, involving an insurer and a provider, both potentially culpable in a scheme to shift costs and maximize reimbursement, it still only rises to the level of “old news”. For years, the hospice industry has been rife with a similar dance played between hospices and SNFs. Caught or most recently on display doing this dance is Aseracare. In this dance, hospices circulate among SNFs with high Medicaid census and patient profiles marked by long-term dementia and debility; custodial care by definition. The hospice, in need of additional patients, tells the SNF that it can qualify many of these types of patients for the Medicare hospice benefit and in exchange, the SNF will continue to keep the Medicaid daily rate but the hospice will assume drug costs, supply costs, even DME costs plus augment the staffing. As a kicker, the transition of the patient to the care of the hospice provides some regulatory relief to the SNF as now the overall care of this patient shifts to the hospice and documentation, assessments, and other paperwork otherwise required by the SNF no longer apply. As expected, a win-win of sorts appears. The hospice gets daily rate from Medicare, the SNF the daily rate from Medicaid, the hospice census improves, the SNF census remains the same, etc. The real winner here however is the hospice as an SNF patient is fairly inexpensive to care for as the SNF provides much of the care infrastructure. Visits to SNF patients are typically fewer than a comparable home-bound/community patient and by the nature of many of the patients qualified in this scenario, the length of stay on hospice is considerably longer – a nice stable, revenue stream. Using the 20/20 hindsight view however, shows that a preponderance of these SNF patients don’t fit much of the Medicare hospice criteria and in the acid test category of likely terminal in six months or less, a plausible argument can’t be made.
In the quest for higher reimbursement in an environment facing Medicare spending minimization, control and cuts. behaviors and tactics become irrational and by their very nature, borderline or outright fraudulent. The most rampant that I see is upcoding or creating phantom diagnoses and need where none truly exists. The hospice illustration above is one such example. Others that are common include “stretch-rugging” by therapy companies and SNFs, discharging dually-eligible Medicare SNF patients to hospitals when the medical needs (and supposed costs) increase, and back-dating orders. In some cases, the activity is subtle such as SNFs that are willing to take below fee-schedule discounts for laboratory and radiology services for Medicare residents, even though doing so could lead to a Stark violation for the SNF. The whole chase is about trying to maximize the net revenue under Medicare, either by increasing the volume or minimizing the costs associated with caring for these patients.
Still, the question begs as to “why” this level of fraudulent or inappropriate activity persists and, in-spite of well published examples of providers getting caught. As I wrote earlier, a portion is due to the fundamental flaws inherent with Medicare, how it pays and the program benefit structure. Chalking it all up however, to Medicare while easy, is like solving half of a crossword puzzle and calling it done. In my follow-up post, I’ll provide a bit more clarity as to what I see, are the reasons “why”.
Medicare Doc Fix Redux
The failure of the Super Committee to achieve any measure of “go forward” spending reform left unresolved, a whole host of Medicare program spending messes, many of which will rear their ugly heads come January 1. While many lament the Committee’s failure to resolve equitably, what is set to become automatic cuts, the truth of the matter is that the automatic cuts are literally far-off (politically speaking) and unlikely to occur as specified by current law. More problematic at current are issues such as the continuing (sad) saga of the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule. Recall that for the literally the past years, Congress has employed a series of stop-gap legislative measures staving off cuts to the fee schedule. The latest legislative band-aid will expire on December 31 and if not again patched, cuts of 27.4% are set to occur. Additionally, the same formulaic mess that calls for the reduction in physician payments rolls through to other certain providers such as outpatient therapies (Physical, Occupational, and Speech) inclusive of the reinstitution of a hard cap of $1,800 on outpatient therapy charges.
For readers somewhat unfamiliar with the “devil in the details” of this issue, here’s a brief summary. The current system, based on a formulaic provision known as the SGR (Sustainable Growth Rate) enacted in 1997 as part of the Balanced Budget Act. The purpose of the SGR is to constrain the rate of expenditure growth under Medicare for fee schedule related services (physicians being the most prevalent). Under this system, spending is constrained by annual GDP growth, growth in the number of Medicare beneficiaries, inflation in practice costs for physicians and other outpatient providers, and spending required by regulation or law. Weighting these four factors leads to a change (plus or minus) in the schedule of payments that is fundamentally influenced by economic activity or more precisely, changes in GDP. In simplest terms, if spending in any one year exceeds GDP growth for the same period, the formula looks to reign in spending via cuts in future years. As volume is a contributor as is inflation in practice related costs, the issue becomes somewhat of a ratio analysis; the rate of change in one is offset somewhat by the rate of change in the other or others.
In the earliest years of implementation, GDP growth was healthier than programmatic outlays (the target). The net result until 2001 was a series of fee schedule increases, often at rates greater than inflation for the affected year. Since 2001, expenditures have exceeded the growth target (fundamentally GDP growth) and the formula has triggered cuts. With the exception of 2002, Congress has acted to override the required cuts. Each action by Congress, up to 2007, produced a growing negative balance under the SGR methodology, leading to the current forecast of required reductions equalling 27.4%. Given the requirements under current law and the SGR, forecasts for 2013 and 2014 foreshadow additional cuts.
Logical and illogical arguments abound as to why the system has failed so dramatically; perhaps most logical is that payment discussions (increases and decreases) correlate with beneficiary access. Illogical is that payment reductions impacting certain specialties would lead to wholesale access problems for heart procedures, neuro procedures, etc. Most acutely impacted would be primary care access, already a significant problem in rural and distinct urban areas. Additionally, access to other fee schedule providers such as outpatient therapies would certainly be negatively impacted. In the end, Congress has proven unwilling to allow cuts of the current magnitude to roll forward.
As January 1 is rapidly approaching, here’s my insight into what happens next. First the backdrop of reality. This issue is square on the tables of the group (Congress) that proved incapable of finding $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction over ten years. Being honest, finding $1.2 trillion over ten years is akin to finding apples on the ground in large orchard; this isn’t even low-hanging fruit. Further, this is an election year issue during a period where the economy is stuck in near-neutral. Finally, political cover is scarce and the back and forth rhetoric is furious; tough to find cooler heads. The best that will come forward is a quick D.C. two-step; a patch to resolve the immediate fear of cuts followed by other patches that serve the same purpose but in pieces, appear small while continuing the saga of an aggregate amount of dollars that simply, won’t go away. In as much as it is time or has been time long past, to fix this issue, nothing immediate will occur of this sort. For providers, more nail chewing for Christmas.
Hospice Census: Where’s It At?
A common question I am fielding has to do with the current “no growth” pattern of hospice census; in some cases, decline is more operative of the pattern. Briefly, there are a number of factors at play, some recurring themes and some driven by more aggressive CMS intervention.
- The biggest culprit in the current no-growth situation is the economy. I’ve written about this issue before but it clearly bears repeating. In a down economy, paying patients are more scarce than in a healthy(ier) economy. Assuming as has been the case, provider growth or supply hasn’t declined substantially (if at all) during the recession to current level of stagnation; the same number of providers are chasing a lesser number of “paying” patients. The reality is such that each provider seeks patients that can pay and ranks or grades patient value by payer source; some patients are worth more than others. As hospice is primarily a “down stream” referral, generally coming from an acute environment, the base of referrals starts with the supply of paying patients within the hospital. For most if not all hospitals, patients with good private insurance are the most prized. Medicare comes next and Medicaid next and everything else well below. For hospice, the bulk of referrals are Medicare followed by Medicaid and private insurance to a far lesser degree. When the supply of patients with private insurance declines due to economic malaise for a prolonged period (as current with high unemployment) and the level of elective procedures dies rapidly, all other paying patients become more prized by the hospital; their value increases. As the value of these other patients rises and isn’t replaced quickly with private insureds, the realization of keeping Medicare and Medicaid patients within the system and the hospital as an economic necessity (paying the bills) trumps the value of referring down stream. In short, the demand from a supply of private insureds for beds and services isn’t great enough today to push these other patients out of the acute system. Economically speaking, if I am a hospital, I will maximize whatever revenue source is available to me such that doing so is better than nothing as no immediate alternative or replacement is available.
- While overall census hasn’t grown much over the last few years (if at all), CMS’ concern regarding the composition of hospice census has. The primary focal point is around nursing home patients on hospice and their proclivity as a sub-group to account for longer lengths of stay. Not surprising, as the sources for non-nursing home patients have remained stagnant or declined, hospice activity in nursing homes has steadily increased. What CMS is concerned about today is the growth of the longest stays, principally where these stays occur and what diagnoses correlate to these stays. A notable aside and one that cannot be ignored is the type of hospice ownership that seems to drive the majority of long-length stays. The facts below combined with an OIG workplan emphasis that is focused on reviewing the business relationships between hospices and skilled nursing facilities correlates directly to a softer environment for census gains derived via nursing homes. If the term Hawthorne Effect (behavior modification that occurs as a result of being watched or monitored) comes to mind, I’ve made my point.
- The longest stays occur on average, in nursing homes and assisted living environments.
- The average length of stay in-service for a for-profit hospice is 30 days longer or 33% longer compared to a non-profit hospice.
- The bulk of industry growth in terms of organizations providing hospice has been for-profit, free-standing hospices. The rest of the industry growth has remained essentially flat.
- For-profit margins of free-standing hospices average 10 to 11% compared to non-profit margins of 3%.
- A recent OIG report on hospice care provided in nursing homes found that 82% of the cases reviewed did not meet Medicare coverage requirements.
- In the grand universe of all health care options, hospice care remains a decided niche’. For non-health care people, its tough to wrap your head around a care approach that by its nature, offers no “curative” option. For all too many individual patients and their families, this option is too often viewed as “giving up”.
- Marketing has caused some erosion but marketing on behalf of non-hospice providers. Cancer remains the primary cause of a hospice referral yet for every hospice advertisement I encounter, I encounter a literal ten to one (if not more) advertisements for hospital-based cancer treatment programs or distinct hospitals (think Cancer Treatment Centers of America). While I know the overall survival numbers, costs, logistics, etc. as well as any one, the general patient and their family does not. The treatment approaches are phenomenally positive and reassuring regarding themes of “hope”, “cure”, etc., even for the most desperate of diagnoses. The hospice message is frankly trumped quickly as to the unitiated, it is still about death. The result: Referrals that should have come sooner perhaps are not coming at all or coming closer to the final days.
Taken the above into account and CMS data regarding a projected growth in outlays for FY 2012 of 2.8% (Medicare), an amount that is almost entirely rate driven, expect continued stagnation on the census side. Until the economy improves and more certainty is forward on the future of health care reform, growth in terms of new volume is not soon to arrive.
Current Policy Trends to Watch
In response to a recent series of questions from multiple segments of the health care and post-acute industry plus my own experiences within the landscape of providers and policy makers, I’ve summarized a current list of policy trends “pay attention to”.
Medicare Cuts and the Super Committee: Nothing seems to loom larger or cast a bigger shadow than the prospect of outlay reductions from Medicare translating into rate cuts for providers. Here is the core everyone should focus on. First, the recurring “Doc Fix” issue that Congress has repeatedly kicked down the road time and time again. Let the current patch dissolve and voila, a big chunk of spending disappears (a 30% rate cut on January 1) - albeit with enormous likely consequences in terms of patient access, service reductions, etc. Fix the problem permanently or more likely substantially, and additional non-budgeted spending occurs – a problem. Presently “on the table” so to speak is a recommendation from MedPac to fix the problem via repeal of the Sustainable Growth Rate formula (the trigger for the current “cut” scenario) and replace the formula with a schedule of Physician Fee Schedule updates over a ten-year period. The updates would target primary care physicians at the expense of specialists who would experience a 5.9% cut across a three-year period, followed by a fee schedule freeze. Altogether, this is a fix but one that comes with new spending if no additional changes are made. Likewise, the probability of this being a workable compromise within the medical community is minimal. There remains a side problem to this whole mess and it relates to the number of other Med B services tied to the SGR such as outpatient therapies.
Back to the Super Committee and the prospect of triggered automatic cuts to Medicare. The Committee is charged via last summer’s debt ceiling deal, to arrive at a deficit reduction of $1.5 trillion to be implemented over 10 years, sourced either through spending cuts, new revenues or a combination of the two. Based on what we know today and have consistently experienced over the past year or better, Congress lacks the political will and capability to achieve a consensus on just about any subject. Given that we are also hip-deep in a political cycle with elections nearly one-year away, compromise on a plan is less and less likely. If such a plan cannot pass or isn’t available by the deadline, current law requires an automatic cut of $1.2 trillion to occur, balanced across domestic and military spending. Within the triggered cuts in domestic spending is a 2% cut to Medicare provider reimbursement. This cut would be automatically on-top of, any other current reductions or cuts to providers that occurred as a result of CMS normal-cycle rule making. For example, the 2% would be added to the 11% outlay reduction for SNFs. Interesting to note, Medicaid is unaffected by the automatic reduction trigger. Boiling this all down, here is what is likely “on the table” and could conceivably play out.
- Medicaid is likely at greater risk for some kind of spending reduction package as Medicare and Social Security have the greatest political protection. My best guess, not that this will actually occur or pass, is direct discussions with regard to block grants as an expenditure reduction, broader waivers to States to eliminate current pressure for additional federal support, slow-down of health care reform Medicaid expansion to avoid the additional up-front federal support/funding required by current law.
- Some levels of additional programmatic delays or even, defunding of the Health Care Reform act. Congress loves to think of “not funding” a future expenditure as a “cut”.
- A Medicare realignment approach will be strongly considered. Under realignment, the Commission could conceivably adopt an approach similar to pieces advocated by Paul Ryan namely, higher retirement/eligibility age, premium support for privatization of health coverage (vouchers) or even some level of excess benefit taxation on wealthier retirees (in effect, an imputation of a premium cost for certain income levels). This approach is bolder than other less invasive options.
Medicaid: Notwithstanding my comments on Medicaid in the section above on Medicare and the Super Committee, states continue to wrestle with Medicaid deficits and the real prospects of flat or possibly shrinking, federal funding support. For most states, Medicaid represents the second largest expenditure item within their budgets, just behind education spending. Federal support levels average in the 50% to 60% range. Additionally, the majority of states continue to operate on a fee-for-service platform, bearing all of the direct program and care service cost plus the administrative burden. In a flat to down economic cycle, demand for Medicaid services rises for states as eligibility rolls swell with rising levels of unemployment. At the same time, down to flat economic periods reduce state income collected via taxation; the principal source of initial, core funding for Medicaid (the FMAP provisions require states to allocate first-dollar, the source of which is predominantly taxes). The three trends to watch with Medicaid, all of which I am seeing occur regularly, are;
- A push toward privatization and managed care. States are looking at ways to better coordinate services, create some competitive bidding models, and reduce administrative burdens. Managed Medicaid programs have proven succesful in achieving these goals (some more than others).
- Increasing numbers of programmatic waiver requests to the Federal government. A major issue with the enhanced FMAP funding that came via the Stimulus Bill is that the funds came with strings attached, primarily a requirement that the enhanced funding be used for eligibility expansion, program expansion, and expanded benefits. In July of this year, the enhanced funding disappeared leaving many states with an equal or greater structural Medicaid deficit and still lacking a sufficient economic recovery to garner the necessary “state grown” revenue to sustain not just former program levels but program and benefit expansion driven by the enhanced FMAP. States are increasingly looking to the Federal government today for relief or “waivers” that undo what was put in place to garner the enhanced FMAP.
- Increased provider taxes and decreased payment levels are a given for the vast majority of states. I haven’t yet encountered a state Medicaid plan that wasn’t considering or already implementing, some form of provider tax increases and/or reduced payments to providers. Of most reductions, the target appears squarely focused on the HCBS (Home and Community-Based Services) segment, inclusive of Medicaid waiver programs for Assisted Living and Congregate Housing (Medicaid payments made for supportive, assisted care to a population at-risk of institutionalization).
Miscellaneous/Other: This is a catch-all of five separates trends or issues that in some ways, are inter-related to the Medicare and Medicaid sections and in some ways, separate. To be sure, I could have expanded this section by a magnitude of ten and still not touched on every policy issue presently at play. I opted for the five I hear discussed routinely or I encounter frequently in my work.
- Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs): The first release of draft rules from CMS in March of this year produced a non-starter response from providers. The initial draft implied a series of cumbersome and poorly defined steps for creation, sustainment, operating and quality measures (65 quality measures required for bonus payments) that chilled providers. Earlier this year when the draft was released, I wrote an analysis piece on the draft and the implications for post-acute providers ( http://wp.me/ptUlY-8H ). Clearly, my analysis paralleled the reactions that CMS received regarding the proposed rules. Just this week, CMS released a revised ACO set of rules and to a fairly large degree, softened and clarified the objectionable elements contained in the March draft. Summarized, here are the major changes. Time will tell whether these changes spur additional interest in ACO development.
- Reduction in quality measures from 65 to 33.
- Providers are not required to share in the down-side risk and will be able to access earlier, elements of revenue sharing. The initial version required all original savings returned to Medicare prior to any revenue sharing.
- Community Health Centers and Rural Clinics will be permitted within the ACO model – originally excluded.
- Providers will know up-front which patients are likely to be included within the ACO - originally, not known until after the ACO was formed – a removal or limitation on unknown adverse selection/population risk.
- Inclusion of an Advanced Payment Provision for smaller ACOs, creating initial streams of payment or capital that allows infrastructure investments needed to formulate an ACO to effectively be funded by CMS. this provision only applies to non-institutional ACOs (physician practices) of $50 million or less or rural based ACOs with Critical Access Hospitals or low Medicare volume rural hospitals.
- Removal of the mandatory anti-trust review procedure for new ACOs by the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission. This was a significant gray-area issue in the March draft.
- CMS Movement to Split Provider Pharmacies from Consulting Pharmacy Duties: In an effort to combat what it believes is a conflict of interest between quality and quantity in the SNF pharmacy delivery/provision process, CMS is proposing a requirement that would prohibit the dispensing pharmacy from also being the consulting pharmacy in the SNF. In short, one entity would be required to dispense the medication and the SNF would need to contract or employ, a separate consulting pharmacist or group to review and establish, clinical pharmaceutical plans of care. CMS assumes that this change will reduce the overall number of medications provided and improve care delivery. Perhaps but unlikely. The true outcome is likely about the same level of prescription use in SNFs and higher costs for the SNF. Consulting pharmacists and pharmacists in general are in short supply. For most SNFs, finding a consulting pharmacist separate from the providing organization will be difficult and expensive. Even more problematic will be finding an independent consulting pharmacist or group with sufficient long-term care and geriatric experience to be of any benefit at all; for residents and the facility. My take here is that CMS is wary of continued consolidation of institutional pharmacy providers such as Omnicare and PharMerica and is seeking a back-door method for constraining their growth across the post-acute spectrum.
- Doc-Fix and Sustainable Growth Formula: I touched on this earlier but there is a real side issue to watch and it has nothing to do with the payment issue to physicians. The SGR and the physician payment formula also encapsulates a whole host of outpatient services tied to this element of Part B. For post-acute providers, the target to watch is outpatient or Part B therapy rules and payments. As goes the SGR debate, so goes the prospects for payments for other Part B services such as therapies. Frankly, any fix to the SGR and physician fee schedule issues needs to occur separate from the other Part B elements presently included within the SGR mess.
- Home and Community Based Services: What once was a flourishing sub-industry is soon to be no longer. I touched on this briefly in the section on Medicaid. This element is at significant risk for post-acute providers as funding is tight and most states are looking at any opportunity possible to reduce their HCBS programs, reign in eligibility growth or receive waivers from the Feds for wholesale discontinuation of certain programs. The reason? Institutional care and medical care cannot by law be cut whereas these programs are waiver programs; not presently, expressly required by Federal law.
- Tighter Regulatory Scrutiny: Somewhat parallel to the pharmacy issue above, CMS is foretelling a renewed vigilance on certain post-acute practices and relationships. I am reading and hearing all too many comments and stories regarding CMS closely watching and even planning to directly interject via probes and audits ( and perhaps rule-making), relationships between SNFs and contract therapy companies, pharmacies (see above) and SNFs, SNFs and Hospices, and ancillary medical equipment providers (wound vacs, specialized mattresses, fall prevention devices, etc) and SNFs. The tone here is that CMS believes these relationships exist to optimize profit for the parties and to capture larger elements of reimbursement, not to improve care outcomes or efficiencies.
- Increasing Demands on Physician Engagement: For most post-acute providers, physician engagement such that the same was tied directly to reimbursement was never a major issue. This trend unfortunately, is here to stay and will increase. CMS believes that in Hospice and Home Health particularly, unneccessary services were provided without established medical necessity or justification. Both home health and hospice now have face-to-face requirements for physician certification of necessity for services/care. The next phase of this, and I guarantee this will happen in the next year or two, is direct engagement and oversight of CMS in the relationships between physicians and the organizations and the content of the documentation of medical necessity or justification. Providers need to be vigilant here or face claim denials in increasing numbers.
Post-Payment Reductions: Build a Revenue Model for Success
Not too long ago I wrote a post for SNFs regarding “what to do” in preparation for October 1 rate reductions. Since then, I’ve fielded inquiries galore from all kinds of providers looking into a future that likely includes Medicare and certainly, Medicaid rate/payment reductions. In most cases, the answer that I provide is clearly more confusing and complex than many want to hear. In an attempt to provide additional clarity across the board, regardless of provider type (SNF, Hospice, Home Health, etc.), I decided to write what I hope, is a simplified approach to creating a level of revenue stability in a tight to declining environment.
The typical reaction from most providers I work with is a quick turn to expense reduction as a means of combatting reducing revenues. Often times, the immediate actions taken provide only a short-term respite to margin erosion followed closely by a steady erosion of margin. The reason? The most apparent and easiest places to cut such as staffing reduce service and quality. Consistent reductions in care are followed by consistent erosion in revenue via occupancy or alternatively, higher expenses in the form of staff turnover, compliance problems, etc. The plain fact of health care life and frankly, business life in general is that a company cannot save itself to a consistent profit.
The alternative approach that I recommend providers adapt is a more fundamental, less variable expense focused model; certainly one that doesn’t quibble with incrementalism as a means of dealing with margin via expense reductions. The start of this approach focuses on three key axioms.
- Price = Fixed Cost + Variable Cost + Margin. In this case, price isn’t truly at the control of the provider. Substitute Per Diem Net Revenue for price.
- Net Per Diem Revenue is driven up by productivity, especially billable productivity and case mix. If the equation doesn’t work to produce the margin desired, focus more on productivity and issues such as occupancy and case-mix before attempting to drive down variable costs, unless the variable cost reductions consist of “low hanging fruit” (e.g., too much overtime, agency use, supply and food waste, etc.). Most providers believe wrongly that a Medicare expenditure reduction translates equally for all providers in the form of rate. The reality is that some providers, even in spite of rate or expenditure reductions, can make wholesale gains in their Net Per Diem by improving their productivity and case-mix. Simply put, improving case-mix to higher paying categories, even those impacted by rate cuts, can improve per diem revenue. While Medicare and Medicaid may provide uniformity in the form of rate reductions, providers and their patient mix are far from uniform. The proof is in the impact initially to per diem revenue and then what changes can be implemented from a revenue enhancement strategy that still, even with cuts, increases net per diem revenue.
- Begin to think of expenses as an investment in revenue or sales, not compartmentalized as a separate unrelated item. From this view, room may exist to make “investments” that drive more revenue and thus, in proportion, more margin. Commonly put, this is an ROI approach.
Building a revenue model is fundamentally about maximizing the elements of the business that are tied to sales and tied to payments. It is less about the concept of “more is better” and all about the concept that “better is better”. For example, and employing a bit of algebra, the equation in point one above affords me the opportunity to eliminate any of the four item variables and determine what “each” unknown variable should be. Typically, that means that I start with Fixed Costs as by their nature, they are known and fixed. I equate these to a per diem. From this point, I will add-in a margin and my current or anticipated Price expressed as my Net Per Diem Revenue (this number should approximate very closely, a cash value per diem, before expenses). For example, assuming a fixed cost per diem of $75.00, a net per diem revenue number of $400 and a desired margin (I prefer operating margin, removing non-cash expenses from the calculation) of 20% or $80.00, my variable expenses per diem can equal no more than $245.00.
Using the above example, if my current variable expenses are running higher than $245.00, I will look first, and directly, at ways that I can improve the net per diem revenue number, not at cutting the variable expenses to achieve my margin. Why? The simplest answer is that my variable expenses at a certain volume become somewhat fixed and cutting can become an indiscriminate process that is less tied to revenue and margin and more tied to “ease” that ultimately, erodes revenue and margin. Specifically, I’ll look at five elements that directly correlate to net revenue.
- Occupancy or Census – how productive are my variable expenses? In certain instances, improving net revenue involves right-sizing operations to the proper level. In this view, the focus is less about cutting variable expenses but more about making sure that my expense levels are tied to the actual volume that the business organically generates.
- Marketing/Sales – can I increase my volume, occupancy, census, etc via a more effective marketing/sales effort? In this case, I will likely make investments but I will match my investments against an expected return that is substantially greater than the outlay, accretive to my net revenue.
- Case-Mix Productivity/Payer Mix – do my current level of variable expenses support a higher acuity or a greater level of case-mix acuity? Productivity is not just about everyone being busy. It is also about the core competency of the staff and the ability of the organization to do more with the same level of staff. I recognize that incremental expenses in terms of supplies, drugs, etc. will likely increase but as long as the increase is less than the net revenue increase at the desired margin level (net revenue increase minus incremental expense increase = desired margin), it is worth the investment.
- Investment in Variable Expenses – can I improve my staff levels, hire additional people, to increase volume or case-mix acuity? At certain points, the best answer isn’t reducing variable expenses but actually increasing them if doing so improves my organization’s ability to handle more volume or a different, better paying volume. I have seen all too many organizations shy away from taking certain, better paying cases simply because the investment in different, more expensive staff seemed out of the question from a budgetary standpoint. In reality, if a market exists such that the investment can be productive and the volume sustained, the ROI calculation may in fact, support the investment. Again, as long as the net incremental increase in revenue is greater than the net incremental increase in variable expenses at a level equal to or greater than the desire margin, the investment is worth it.
- Investment in Fixed Costs – can I make a plant, property or equipment investment that improves my marketing, my positioning, or increases my productivity and volume/census? Fixed cost investments can sometimes be the most obvious and the easiest to justify. Their impact on the per diem side is typically nominal unless the investment was tied to debt and a major project. Likewise, the ROI is easier to calculate as it can be two-sided; improve revenue or improve efficiency by reducing other expenses or improving productivity.
While I can’t use current or former work examples with specifics without violating certain privacy expectations, the following are three simple “real world” cases or scenarios that I worked through with organizations that illustrate the principles above.
- For a home care/hospice organization that consistently missed referral opportunities and experienced fairly large case-mix and volume fluctuations, we simply added two staff positions that served as “intake coordinators” (not the actual titles). The primary responsibility of these positions was being in the hospitals, nursing homes, etc. where the referrals came from. Being proactive and working directly with discharge planners, physicians, etc. allowed the organization to develop a more stable pipeline of referrals, better case-mix, and frankly, better care and service. The return on this investment in short-order was a significantly greater revenue multiple.
- For an SNF that was traditionally in the mid-ninety percent occupied, we looked at the complement of payers and the allocation of rooms from a revenue perspective. The room mix was approximately two-third private and one-third semi-private. To stay full and meet occupancy targets, the SNF relied on poorer quality payers (Medicaid primarily and some hospice) to keep the semi-privates full. The solution was simple: Right size the room mix to all private which could be occupied by a higher paying mix while increasing slightly, acuity and re-organizing staff. The fixed-cost investment was fairly minimal as turning the semi-private rooms to privates involved initially, removing a bed, rearranging furniture, and centering the over-bed light into a single position. The building became more efficient, stayed full with a waiting list, and the overall revenue per room and the net revenue per diem jumped by 30%.
- For another SNF that was traditionally mid-ninety percent occupied, primarily with private pay and Medicare (virtually no Medicaid), the issue was all about low acuity and insufficient staff capability and infrastructure to support a stronger payer mix. In this instance, we worked to bring therapy in-house from a contract provider, increased RN staffing and decreased CMA and CNA staffing, expanded therapy services to six days, started taking admissions six days per week and increased acuity and thus, even with pending/current Medicare rate cuts, we were able to jump per diem from less than $400 per day to nearly $450 per day, increasing overall Medicare census and improving staff productivity. We also jumped Med B utilization which was non-existent and moved the overall revenue level current and pro forma (forward), up by nearly 20%. The additional expense in new staffing, etc. increase variable expenses per diem by 11%. The overall change was a positive increase in margin of just shy of 9% which when added to the current margin (cash margin) of 13%, pushed the level above 20%…a level this organization believed, for a non-profit, was unattainable without sacrificing “quality or service”. In the end, both improved along with the margin.
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