Nursing assistants are anticipated to experience the largest projected shortfall among all healthcare occupations analyzed, with an expected national shortage exceeding 73,000 assistants by 2028.
This projection is based on a report by Mercer, which also predicts a nationwide deficit of over 100,000 healthcare workers by the same year. The demand for nursing assistants is projected to be the highest, with only 13 states likely to meet or surpass the anticipated need. pdf-us-2024-future-of-us-healthcare-industry-labor-market-projections-by-2028
According to Mercer, the forecasted supply of nursing assistants, which represent 8% of the entire US healthcare workforce and 40% of healthcare support roles in 2023, appears to be disheartening.
What we know is that overall, the supply of healthcare workers, particularly those involved in/working direct care roles is perilously close to inadequate. Looked at regionally, where jobs are and work occurs, the picture is imbalanced. Some states have surplus labor, at least by license registrations, and some states, show significant need for labor. The patterns of why supply is adequate in some states and not in others are unclear.
The escalating shortage of healthcare workers in the U.S. stems from both a diminishing supply and a burgeoning demand. The latter is a natural consequence of an expanding and aging populace. Nonetheless, the dwindling supply is a multifaceted issue, with three primary factors seemingly at the core of this challenge.
1. COVID-19 as a catalyst for the acceleration of resignations
2. Ongoing burnout among healthcare workers
3. Non-competitive compensation for some occupations
A report from MissionCare Collective offers some insight into direct care worker shortage. For example, over half of direct
care workers rely on public assistance. As a group, they face anxiety and depression at three times the national average. Home care workers often experience social isolation, further impacting their well-being. Often, this group works via agency connections, segregating them from perhaps, beneficial employer/employee relationships. StateoftheDirectCareWorkforce
The chart above is an example of the demographics and pay rates among direct care workers, state by state. Universally, the compensation is lower than other industry opportunities (e.g., Wal-Mart, Costco, Amazon). In certain markets, as cost of living moves higher due to inflationary trends, employment shifting for better wages has become quite common or alternatively, working two jobs in two different industries. Not surprising, the workforce as a whole is predominantly people of color, living within a low-income household. The latter is a source of vulnerability for continued, steady employment.
As much as continued development of supply is important, resolving the turnover challenge is even more important. The pandemic generated unprecedented levels of turnover and job disenfranchisement (people leaving for other opportunities) due to closures, overwork, stress, vaccine mandates, etc. The need for labor remained but the supply dwindled and today, it has yet to be recouped.
Unplanned staff departures exacerbate the strain on already tight staffing ratios, creating a vicious cycle of attrition. Since burnout frequently triggers attrition, it’s crucial for healthcare systems to prioritize the well-being of their current workforce. Enhancing the employee value proposition through competitive pay and benefits, flexible scheduling, opportunities for career advancement, and job satisfaction is essential. With the ever-evolving landscape, continuous market analysis is necessary to stay competitive. This is a post I wrote last year on staff retention challenges and strategies. https://rhislop3.com/2023/04/27/top-5-staff-retention-tips-for-a-tough-labor-market/
A good reference site specific to Nursing Assistants and their supply shortage is here: CNA Shortages – Premier Nursing Academy