Tonight’s presidential debate should be policy focused but likely, won’t be or won’t be with sufficient detail. There are a ton of policy issues that should be discussed. Healthcare policy, in my opinion, should be very much a topic of open and frank discussion.
I know I am a geek when it comes to economic policy and health policy. They’ve been a deep part of my livelihood (profession). So for tonight, three quick subject/topic summaries that I hope would be covered and a brief “why”.
- Entitlements and Medicare Solvency: In 2023, major entitlement programs—Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, and other health care programs—consumed 50 percent of all federal spending. Soon, this spending will be larger than the portion of spending for all other priorities (such as national defense) combined. Given the construct of these programs, their financing today places them in danger of default. More on Medicare solvency here: https://rhislop3.com/2023/09/18/issue-medicare-solvency/
- The Federal Budget, Deficits, and Debt: At our present rate of spending, the U.S. is adding $1 trillion of new debt to the deficit every 30 days. The unsustainability of government debt stems from its tendency to dampen economic activity by displacing private capital formation and necessitating future tax hikes or expenditure reductions to service interest payments. As government debt issuance rises, financial markets often require higher interest rates to offset the increased supply, aside from other macroeconomic disturbances that may concurrently boost debt demand. Anticipating continued debt growth, forward-looking financial markets are likely to seek even greater returns. Consequently, escalating borrowing costs accelerate debt accumulation, potentially triggering a “snowball” effect and a downward spiral in the government’s ability to issue debt at a fixed future value. When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels? — Penn Wharton Budget Model (upenn.edu)
- Population and Immigration: Immigration will no doubt be discussed but my take is not at the level that is required. We have a significant problem with labor shortages, skilled labor, and labor sufficient to support an aging population. A post I recently wrote reflects the problem/issues that should be discussed – https://rhislop3.com/2024/03/26/the-politics-of-population-and-immigration/