Back in December of 2023 (late), I wrote a post with my 2024 Outlook. I dusted off the “old” crystal ball and peering deeply, I offered a few prognostications. The post is available here: https://rhislop3.com/2023/12/27/wednesday-feature-outlook-for-2024/
Below are the predictions along with a quick review of how close, or not, I was at the time. I’ll check back on all of these at year-end but for now, the update was fun to produce.
- Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump will be elected President in 2024. (I’m half right on this one…so far)
- The U.S. economy will enter a recession in the first quarter of 2024…unless the bond yield curve inversion is no longer a tell-tale sign of things to come. (This one is not clear. Recessions are analyzed retrospectively. So far, it doesn’t look like I’m right on this one but we’ll see)
- The Federal Reserve will cut rates by .25% in March, trying to forestall a recession. Four additional rate cuts will occur in the year for a total reduction in the Federal Funds Rate of 1 point. (Boy, this one got wacky. The Fed should have cut earlier but when it did, it cut .50. The full point for 2024 is still in-play but I’d have to say, given recent inflation numbers and the jump in bond yields, this one may end completely in the “wrong” column FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) | FRED | St. Louis Fed )
- Unemployment will tick over 4% by the second quarter and remain at the 4% level for the year. (Got this one – so far. Unemployment ticked to 4% in May and has stayed above (increasing) since)
- Home mortgage rates will decline into the 5.5% to 5.75% range. (This one is a sort of. Rates did tick down in some markets, under 6 to 5.75% or close. They have since moved back above 6%. We’ll see where they trend come year-end, but I’d guess now, this may not happen across all markets)
- The 10-year Treasury yield will hover around 3.25% by the third quarter of 2024. (Nope – missed it. The third quarter is done, and the 10-year is above 4%)
- Despite the massive impact healthcare spending has on the U.S. economy, particularly the amount of spending on federal entitlements like Medicare and Medicaid, no political candidate will focus any significant portion of their campaign on reform measures for Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security. (So far, nailed it!)
- The war in Ukraine will not end in 2024. (So far, this looks solid)
- Home prices will remain at record high levels. (Nailed this one too!)
- Home sales will improve in the second half of 2024 but by comparison to 2021, they will remain suppressed. (The bifurcation on this prediction makes me half right, so far. Sales didn’t improve but without question, the market remains suppressed, well below 2021 levels)
- Senior housing development, new unit starts, will remain suppressed. An uptick will begin to occur in the third quarter as lending rates soften. (So far, this looks like a win – don’t have Q3 data yet).
- Lifestyle housing will remain hot and accelerate in 2024. (This one is solid but how much acceleration is yet to be determined)
- SNF closures will continue, especially free-standing. (Got this one Report: Access to Nursing Home Care is Worsening)
- Rural hospital closures will continue at a pace similar to 2023. (Sadly, yes -21 so far)
- For those providers/systems/investors with cash, 2024 will provide lots of buying opportunities of distressed or troubled assets. Deals will be plentiful. (Got this one right as deals continue to get done with distressed and troubled being active and private equity being very active in the SNF/ALF space – they have cash)
- Single site or small footprint CCRCs will continue to struggle, and affiliations will remain high. Non-profits will dominate this trend.(Got this one too – see Fitch’s continuation of its outlook on the sector as “troubled/challenged”)
To recap: 17 predictions and so far, I’ve gotten 10 correct/in my “win” column (so to speak), and 2 “half-right”. That means I whiffed on 5 or missed but maybe, not by much – the second prediction on recession is an example.
I’ll check the tote board at year-end, and pull the crystal ball back out for 2025!