Healthcare, Senior Living, Economics
Last week I wrote about Fitch Ratings updates to their non-profit CCRC rating criteria. The expectation with the changes was that twelve percent of the rated CCRCs could be subject to Under Criteria Observation (UCO). What has occurred as a result of Fitch Ratings Update is that eighteen CCRCs have been impacted, falling under UCO. … Read more
Fitch Ratings has completed updates to its ratings criteria for not-for-profit continuing care retirement/life plan communities (CCRCs), enhancing the reflection of the risk profile for these rated entities. These changes come after a period of commentary on a draft released earlier this spring. The criteria modifications aim to more accurately represent the distinct risks associated … Read more
The Fitch Ratings Public Finance outlook dropped earlier this week and not surprising, their outlook for Life Plan Communities and Non-Profit Hospitals/Health Systems remains negative or in their terms, “deteriorating”. Their forecast is for deteriorating credit conditions in these two sectors due primarily to labor and cost pressures (insufficient supply of labor at higher comp levels … Read more
With occupancy rebounding to pre-pandemic levels and demand remaining strong, CCRCs/Life Plan Communities continue to face economic headwinds from capitalizing on improving market conditions. Capital costs continue to rise making borrowing money a challenge or alternatively, perhaps adding additional debt service costs if existing debt is variable. Accessing capital is nearly imperative for most CCRCs/Life … Read more
On Monday, Fitch (investment rating agency) dropped a non-rating commentary as an alert that should the economy hit a recession (I would argue not “should” but “when”), that Life Plan communities will encounter additional financial pressure. Recall that in December 2022, Fitch issued its outlook on the Life Plan/CCRC market, qualifying it as “deteriorating.” Per … Read more
As economic conditions continue to create headwinds for senior living, I thought this post was timely. Bottom-line: I’m seeing lots of single site and even a number of multi-site, small scale organizations struggling. Depending on their markets and their debt load plus cash position, surviving as independents could be a real challenge over the upcoming … Read more