Healthcare, Senior Living, Economics
In December of 2022, Fitch (credit rating agency) issued their outlook for the non-profit, Life Plan (CCRC) sector within the senior housing industry. Fitch outlooks are a primer for creditors seeking to determine lending scales for the upcoming year (bullish v. bearish). The Fitch outlook for the sector was “deteriorating”. The basis for this negative … Read more
One of the largest complaints about senior care and housing is cost. It is or can be, darn expensive. The best, most amenitized Life Plan projects can run hundreds of thousands of dollars to enter and tens of thousands more in monthly fees. Rates inflate typically, more than CPI each year. Lately, rate inflation has … Read more
Soon the target customer for most senior housing options, primarily independent living and CCRC/Life Plan will be folks born in the “baby boomer” generation. Boomers are folk born between 1946 and 1964, placing them today, between 76/77 and 58/59 years of age. They were born right after WW II and right at the beginning of … Read more
In its latest update, the Altarum Health Sector Economic Indicators, provided some interesting information on health care spending, job growth, and pricing. The data was released yesterday and is accessible here: https://altarum.org/publications/june-2023-health-sector-economic-indicators-briefs Some key data points from the report are as follows. The data is useful in forecasting, budgeting, and planning, especially in terms of … Read more
Just a tick early as mid-year officially won’t occur until this Saturday with the second quarter officially ending, Friday. This said, not much is likely to change the current status between now and Friday or for that matter, any time soon. The first half of 2023 can be summed up through a look at two … Read more
Healthcare has a great deal of complexity in terms of care delivery and clinical needs. Today, and going forward, equal complexity exists on the business and operations front. Large provider organizations and systems are likely to have the capacity and capability to acquire and internalize, expertise within the organizational structure. Smaller, single site or regional … Read more
A recent federal funds rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 50 bps has created a bit of optimism in the M&A and capital development arena for senior living and senior housing. The expectation of more Fed rate cuts going forward undergirds the optimism BUT…Overall economic conditions remain sketchy including inflation which, ticked a notch higher … Read more
For some recent years, enhanced by the pandemic, the role of SNFs in the post-acute/senior living industry has tarnished. Residents and families often view the SNF as a “negative place” to reside, even if for short-term recuperation. Clinical staff take a dim view of the care complexity such that the SNF is a downgraded clinical … Read more
While we are seeing incremental occupancy gains in senior housing, the increases are slow but steady. Is there a leveling-off point upcoming? Perhaps. Regardless, even with the recent history of gains, there is a reason to be a bit skeptical for some product types to continue to improve. My skepticism rests at the Independent Living … Read more
Senior housing in the form of CCRCs, Independent Living and Assisted Living (including memory care) is a large user of debt financing. While equity has become more prevalent via increasing private equity interests in senior living, operators, especially non-profits, continue to rely heavily on bank and bond financing. Private equity and venture capital investment trends … Read more