Healthcare, Senior Living, Economics
The Fitch Ratings Public Finance outlook dropped earlier this week and not surprising, their outlook for Life Plan Communities and Non-Profit Hospitals/Health Systems remains negative or in their terms, “deteriorating”. Their forecast is for deteriorating credit conditions in these two sectors due primarily to labor and cost pressures (insufficient supply of labor at higher comp levels … Read more
The oldest boomers are about to turn 80 in 2026. This age point is typically the trigger point for advancing needs in secure living environments, services increase (ADL and IADL support), and increasing healthcare consumption. The baby boom generation is defined as folks born between 1946 and 1964. The “boom” reference is the rapid number of children … Read more
Senior Housing has had a long, slow grind toward recovery, post-pandemic. Fitch classified the Life Plan component as “deteriorating”. Among the many challenges the industry sectors (Independent, Assisted, Life Plan) faced, access to capital and access and maintenance of dependable and qualified labor are the two most challenging. COVID shaved occupancies rather substantially. Pre-pandemic, as … Read more
TGIF! On a calendar year basis, we are into the home stretch for 2023. It’s generally about now that I start looking at how 2024 is shaping up. What trends are there to watch? What do markets look like now, socially and economically? What does policy and politics tell us about the year to come? … Read more
With occupancy rebounding to pre-pandemic levels and demand remaining strong, CCRCs/Life Plan Communities continue to face economic headwinds from capitalizing on improving market conditions. Capital costs continue to rise making borrowing money a challenge or alternatively, perhaps adding additional debt service costs if existing debt is variable. Accessing capital is nearly imperative for most CCRCs/Life … Read more
Yesterday we got a good look at the status of the SNF industry via a data report from CLA. Today, as the week ends, we can look at the broad industry as a whole and where occupancies are trending. NIC (National Investment Center) released its occupancy snapshot for senior living for Quarter 3. That summary … Read more
On Monday, Fitch (investment rating agency) dropped a non-rating commentary as an alert that should the economy hit a recession (I would argue not “should” but “when”), that Life Plan communities will encounter additional financial pressure. Recall that in December 2022, Fitch issued its outlook on the Life Plan/CCRC market, qualifying it as “deteriorating.” Per … Read more
The June existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors paints a depressing picture of the residential real estate market. The release is here: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-retreated-3-3-in-june-monthly-median-sales-price-reached-second-highest-amount Home sales down 3.3 percent Sales off 18.9% from a year ago Inventory available for sale didn’t change – 2.8 months (seasonally adjusted) Median prices rose again to … Read more
While we are seeing incremental occupancy gains in senior housing, the increases are slow but steady. Is there a leveling-off point upcoming? Perhaps. Regardless, even with the recent history of gains, there is a reason to be a bit skeptical for some product types to continue to improve. My skepticism rests at the Independent Living … Read more
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve added another .25 point to its baseline interest rate – federal funds rate. The rationale is to continue to reduce inflation which, is running at decade highs. The trickle-down effect will begin with capital costs and capital access, impacting all kinds of industries but first and foremost, the real estate … Read more